Container arrivals forecasting practice and experience at marine terminals
Executive Committee for the Interdisciplinary Program in Transportation
Master of Science
Bladikas, Athanassios K.
The advent of the container traffic in maritime transportation has led during its 40-year long history to novel perceptions and operation planning requirements for the port container terminal. A major requirement in this respect refers to the efficiency of the operations in the container transfer between the different modes. The current study presents a methodology on the development of a forecasting tool to access the service demand patterns at a marine terminal on per day basis. A set of forecasting models was introduced and their implementation difficulties were explored. The main effort in this approach was to replicate the distribution of container arrivals/pick-ups before and after the scheduled voyage date of a vessel. A data-driven decision support system was developed to retrieve and to analyze the historic information captured at a major terminal of the U.S. East Coast for a period of 18-months. The evaluation of the current solution revealed a satisfactory fit of the forecasting model projections to the actually observed patterns. Due to the lack of a solid theoretical background, the approach is unfavorable to the use of applied statistical tests. In general the product should be seen as a management information system designed to assist the terminal activity planning and equipment management in conjunction with the coherent experience of the operating team.
njit-etd1999-094 (98 pages ~ 5,093 KB pdf)
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Created May 5, 2009